Mr. Rogers (Kenny, that is, not the neighborly guy) has given us some timely advice that works well across many disciplines. I could write a long post using an overextended metaphor as to how the stock market is like a game of poker, taking bits of K-Rog's classic country song to illustrate various analogous situations, but I'll spare you. Suffice it to say that knowing when to hold and when to fold is key a key part of both gambling and investing.

Let's look at a couple examples.

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Well, after two significant days down, I've decided to sell out of PCLN. I was hoping that $135 would hold up as a support point, but it did not, and now I think it may become a resistance.

In the end, I made close to 7% on the trade – not a horrible profit, though well below optimal. The recent high at $144.34 was about 18% above my buy price. It would've been nice to lock in gains there. Oh well.

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I made a good call last Thursday. A really good one. I'm proud of it. I wonder if I can do it again....

It seemed pretty obvious to me that Priceline.com was gonna report some great earnings, for all the reasons I outlined in last Thursday's post. But there is always that little bit of hesitation that makes me wonder if I'm reading things right. Maybe there was a piece of information I was lacking, or maybe the information I had wasn't entirely correct. Such is the nature of the beast.

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I bought a small position today in Priceline.com (PCLN) today. They announce earnings today after the market closes, and I'm betting on some favorable news.

For one thing, as this AP article explains, a significant portion of Priceline's business comes from Europe. With the weak dollar, that makes for some great potential. Expedia.com, Priceline's main rival, recently beat analyst expectations for much the same reason.

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