XLY

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF

Approximately 70% of U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is created for personal consumption. As consumption is such a large component of our economy, it is prudent for us, as investors, to have some tools to monitor consumption--both for insight into the broader market trend and trends in sectors more sensitive to changes in personal consumption, such as retail.

Here is one method of doing just that using the retail sales data series as compiled and published by the U.S. Census Bureau.

A month ago, GameStop (GME) looked like a promising play. It was on the upside of a cup and looked like it was gonna form a handle. Almost text book.

Then, something nice happened. They announced earnings that beat expectations by 2 cents per share, beating the same quarter in 2007 by 151%. They also raised earnings estimates for the year - generally a good sign.

Since over half of a stock's performance is due to its sector, it is important to have a method to evaluate broad sector and industry trends. As readers of my previous posts may guess, I am quite partial to IBD's industry ranking feature which ranks 197 industry sub-groups according to six month price performance. This level of detail is hard to emulate easily at home, but even simpler systems can give you insight into the market and help you make better informed trades. One easy way to gauge broad sector trends is to track sector ETFs versus a broad market index.