The current market: auspicious or suspicious?

Dave hasn't done his weekly analysis yet this week, but I feel compelled to make some of my own comments.

Basically, this week was a ginormous roller coaster ride. The Dow Jones Industrial Average swung within a 16% range between 9,800 and 8,200, and the other indices oscillated similarly. Volatility is "off the charts" – not really (since volatility charts theoretically have an infinite range), but metaphorically it's true. And all the while, governments around the world continued to display socialist tendencies as they directed their central banks to buy bank loans or even outright purchase banks themselves.

Which is all to say that it's very possible the world is going to hell in a hand basket. For the last two weeks I've tried playing the volatility to small success. Fortunately, I've come out ahead, but only to the tune of making gains of less than 1%, which barely makes a dent in the losses I've made so far this year. (And I'm just talking about my active trading portfolio, not even my retirement accounts, which are a shambles.)

Or maybe the market is going through the expected drunken convulsions required to foment a change in course. Investors Business Daily – a rag that this poor brother highly esteems – seems to suggest exactly this in the Oct. 20 installment of The Big Picture (subscription required to read the full article). IBD views Thursday as a confirmation of a rally started on Monday, which if it holds up under pressure could be the beginning of an upturn.

It's hard to know now, of course, what is going to happen, especially with the final sprint of the presidential race over these next two-and-a-half weeks. While this poor brother cannot endorse either of the major party candidates, I have to recognize that one of them may be more palatable for the market. Which one that is, though, remains to be seen.

My advice: Don't rush into anything now. Do your research to find fundamentally sound companies (there are still a few out there), and be prepared to enter a position when you see the technical indicators supporting a move in the right direction.

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