Will New Oriental pass the test?

I've had New Oriental & Technology (EDU) on my watchlist for awhile. It's very attractive for a number of fundamental reasons, most notably increasing sales and earnings the last few quarters. They're also sitting on a pile of cash with no debt, which always makes this poor brother drool.

From a brand perspective, New Oriental also is in a great position as the lead provider of private educational services in China. They offer language instruction, preparation courses for standardized tests, private kindergartens, and a number of other services.

One of the things that stood out at me as I read through their latest report was the comments about the summer months being their best performers, because that's when people are out of school. On the one hand, it's understandable that having more time gives people more opportunity to further their education. But having grown up in the U.S. where summers are considered almost sacrosanct as vacation time, and where there's such a stigma on "summer school," I was somewhat astounded that people in China would consider their summers as an opportunity to pay to improve their education.

The final positive for EDU is the two simple words that have fueled some of the best stock increases over the last few years: Emerging market. Simply being in China gives this company that extra little shimmer that makes the difference between a cubic zircona and a true diamond. Of course, it remains to be seen how emerging markets will fare with the overall global slowdown, but it seems to me that China is likely to be at the top of the list simply because of the sheer number of people who have more money and are looking to improve their own situations.

But it hasn't been a rosy ride for New Oriental. They've had as much – if not more – volatility as anyone else, weathering swings from $79 in mid-August to recent lows near $45 at the end of October (and as low as $47.50 today).

EDU: 18 Nov., 2008

Some of this volatility is nothing more than replication of what's going on in the larger market. Being on the cusp of becoming a full-fledged medium cap stock has probably hurt a bit as well, since many investors may not want to purchase small cap companies in this environment.

I think EDU is definitely one to keep on the radar, though. I was interested in short-term support near $51, but that was broken through today. However, there is much longer term support at $45, and it's likely in this poor brother's opinion that EDU will bounce hard off that support. It would be a great opportunity to play the volatility, if you're not ready to commit long term to a stock like EDU.

As always, educate yourself on the fundamentals and know before you buy what your entry and exit points are.

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